While the report called for a bringing forward of capital spending – which the Government would argue has already been done – the report also stated clearly that this should be “fiscally neutral”, i.e. no extra borrowing. Alongside this relatively benign assessment, given the circumstances, is the emergence of a mini-recovery in recent months which will serve to slightly lift the pressure on Osborne.

Whatever the foundations of this mini-recovery, which admittedly seem dubious, the political reality is that Labour’s well-rehearsed attack lines had to be kept back yesterday. When Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls started work yesterday morning he will have likely envisaged another day on the airwaves castigating the Chancellor, and yet today it may well be that Labour decide to start rethinking their economic messaging.

In many ways yesterday’s report and improved growth figures only expedites the policy rethink that Labour were always going to have to do at some point in this Parliament. So far the messaging from the shadow treasury team has largely been devised in the absence of a recovery – all based on its ‘too far too fast’ narrative. This had paid dividends in recent months, and yet it is an approach which by 2015 may well be politically redundant.

By contrast, the Conservatives have long since set their stall out on the economy, with the message in 2015 almost certainly to be something along the lines of: ‘while we have done the hard yards getting Britain back on track, Labour have stood on the sidelines being positively unhelpful’.

Yesterday’s report and the improving economic conditions brings these revised economic battle lines into sharper focus. Undoubtedly Osborne’s dabble in housing bubblenomics is designed to engineer a mini-boom ahead of 2015 and looks set to disguise the huge structural weaknesses in the British economy, not least the gaping current account deficit which rose to £57.7bn – 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product – in 2012. He will also hope that incoming Bank of England Governor Mark Carney continues with, and perhaps even accelerates, the loose monetary policy that is keeping zombie firms alive and unemployment down.

With less than two years until the next election this set of circumstances signals a shift to the likely economic terrain on which the 2015 General Election will be fought. Given the unsubtle nature of political messaging, the economic complexities will largely be lost on the public come 2015. The public has more or less accepted the Chancellor’s strategy and the cuts; however the squeeze on living standards as a result is fast becoming the main political issue. Labour will now be forced to rework their narrative on the economy accordingly, away from a more general criticism of the Chancellor’s fiscal policy, towards the more narrow issue of living standards and what they would do to help.

As individuals, it’s normal. What’s not normal is when brands try to piggyback on these events. That’s when it turns from something that can be perceived as good, bad or indifferent depending on your disposition, to something crass, ill-judged, idiotic and offensive.

The events of earlier today in Woolwich do not bear repeating. Enough column inches will be filled with news, information, opinion (well and ill informed) over the coming days. Once again, Twitter was the first on the scene. For once, unfortunately it must be said, much of the information that came from social media looks to have been true.

Once again though, Twitter also hosted something that seems to follow every tragedy of the last few years – an epic failure to judge a situation and keep quiet about it. In this instance, Friendsreunited were the guilty party – with this tweet.

A few weeks ago, it was epicurious who came in for fierce criticism after posting a series of ludicrous recipe tweets in the wake of the Boston bombing. In the past, Habitat made a hamfisted attempt to piggyback on trending topics on Twitter – including topics related to the unrest in Iran in 2009. In a similar vein, Kenneth Cole’s famously tweeted about the protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

There are countless other examples. Too many to mention in fact. What astounds me more than anything else is that in almost every case, there will be a communications structure in place at these companies. Much as they might try to pass it off as the work of a disgruntled employee or ‘hackers’, more often than not, these tweets have gone through at least one or two layers of approvals before being posted.

Here’s a hint. When something bad happens – talk to your friends. Be normal. Do the things that normal people do on social media channels. If you’re running an online or social account for yours or someone else’s business do yourself a favour. Say it best by saying nothing at all.

At the core of today’s Scotland’s Economy: the case for independencepaper is the Scottish Government’s assertion that Scotland’s economy has been stifled by successive UK governments.  It highlights specific examples of instances where the Scottish Government believe the Scottish economy could put up a stronger performance, if it weren’t for Westminster control over key policy areas. 

“If only Scotland had full power of independence, Scotland could fulfil its economic potential”, says Deputy First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.  “But don’t be so silly”, cries chair of Better Together, Alistair Darling – “you’ll be cutting yourself off from your biggest trading partner”.  “Scare story!”, “You’re in denial!” – I paraphrase both, of course, but that pretty much sums up a lot of the debate thus far. 

Clearly there’s still a great deal of tit for tat going on around independence but the countdown is on and people are starting to demand substance at the heart of the debate. These reports from the UK and Scottish governments have the potential to be the foundations for such a debate.

Here’s hoping both sides rise to the occasion and make it something worth listening to. 

There was a real buzz around the MHP offices today, as we were able to officially announce our appointment to provide global strategic communications support for Riyadh’s planned Metro system. As the largest public transport project currently in development anywhere in the world, it’s really captured our collective imaginations.

MHP was appointed by the Arriyadh Development Authority (ADA), the government planning body for Riyadh, following a competitive global tender process. As a result of this win a number of our Corporate team have had the chance to work in the Saudi capital in recent months, getting up to speed on the progress of the project and meeting the various parties involved.

The project will be undertaken on a huge scale, introducing six metro lines, a city-wide bus system, and park and ride facilities into a city with little existing public transport infrastructure. The system is the long-held vision of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who believes the time is right for Riyadh to gain a world-class public transportation network. An exciting example of the proposed  design for an interchange station can be seen above.  

To support this vision, we’ve designed a multi-disciplinary communications programme for the ADA. We’ll be providing strategic counsel, digital and traditional media insight, as well as graphic design, to name but a few elements. As the project gathers momentum, we’re really looking forward to working with Saudi, regional and international audiences to generate support during the construction process.

This work will also extend to building widespread awareness of the system and positively effecting behaviour change amongst Riyadh’s car users, with a view to ultimately encourage uptake of the public transport system.

Look out for more updates from the MHP team as this ambitious project progresses.

Unsurprisingly, the Treasury found that Scotland faces financial doom if it were to separate from the Union. However, we will likely find out from the Scottish Government tomorrow as to why this isn’t the case and how Scotland will be immensely wealthier if it goes it alone.

As expected, the report today warns of the complexities surrounding the potential for Scotland to retain Sterling as its currency. This comes in the mire of the ongoing ‘McStalemate’ between the Yes and No camps over the future of the pound in an independent Scotland – with some commentators throwing the option of establishing an entirely new Scottish currency in to the ring.

It raises the question as to whether this gives the despondent electorate a big enough fright to join (or at least vote) in the debate which – the everyman might argue – has so far been characterised by political nit-picking over issues that are too far-removed from your average voter to gain any traction.

If, as the stats suggest, 71 per cent of Scots-who-feel-a-little-bit-both-Scottish-and-British are going to vote with their hearts in next year’s referendum, will the prospect of losing the pound be the catalyst for an outpour of emotional voters turning out in their droves to protect the quid?

In the meantime we look forward to digesting the Scottish Government paper later this week…

One Yahoo investment that is about to pay off massively is their 23% stake in Alibaba. China’s answer to eBay and Amazon is immeasurably bigger than those two combined. It’s well on track to be the first online company to generate over $1 trillion in revenues, and it’s headed towards an IPO pretty soon. 

The battle for supremacy in mobile chat apps continues apace in Asia. Celebs and TV ads are the latest battleground for Line and Kakao Talk in Indonesia. WeChat is pushing hard for market share in India to add to its 300m+ users elsewhere in the world. Bringing up the rear is Blackberry, who have announced that they’ll be bringing their BBM chat service to iOS and Android this summer – only about two or three years late…

Staying with mobile, and rumours abounded of an Amazon phone with a 3D screen. Cause that’s worked so well for TV and movies. 

Yet more privacy issues for people – hot on the heels of Path’s privacy snafu, Bang with Friends and Snapchat both had vulnerabilities exposed. Caveat downloader is my advice. 

A Small World (remember them – the social network that Tiger Woods, Naomi Campbell and numerous other celebs signed up for) has performed the patented Silicon Valley pivot and is now a travel club. It actually sounds a lot more interesting than its previous incarnation. 

I loved this article in the Harvard Business Review. The concept of surprise and delight is one of the most powerful marketing tools available. Fun is a really powerful motivator. It’s something I talked about at the Digital Summit in Dublin a few weeks back. 

Email marketing is a great way to connect with people, but beware – an email a day keeps the users away. 

Almost done – there’s a lot of talk about how everyone should learn how to code. I think everyone should understand how it works, but not everyone can be a coder. This is a really good piece on the topic. Some balance is needed in this debate.

Enjoy Mashable on how not to feed the trolls. It’s interesting to see yet another company resort to the ‘we were hacked’ defense. Man up. Admit that you lost it. Apologise. 

Lastly, for those of you who read this far, check out Google’s latest easter egg. Go to Google Image Search and type in breakout. Enjoy.

Have a good weekend. Eamonn.

The Bank revealed its future plans to trim back its inflation outlook and extend its growth forecast for the first time since 2007, looking forward to “a welcome change in the economic outlook”.   It’s fair to say that Sir Mervyn King was relieved to be able to deliver a positive set of forecasts (which have been few and far between), in his final stint as Governor of the Bank.

However, as is often the case, you have to take the rough with the smooth, and the news this week that a former BlackRock senior portfolio manager, Mark Lyttleton, had been arrested as part of an investigation into insider dealing by the Financial Conduct Authority, provided cause for concern. 

BlackRock board members feared that there would be fallout for its portfolios following the questioning of former “star”, and were quick to distance themselves from the case, issuing a statement to assuring that there was “no suggestion that there has been any impact to any of BlackRock’s clients,”.  This case further adds the evidence supporting the FCA’s aggressive enforcement of the law in recent times.

There is no doubt that policing surrounding insider trading has improved since the years in the run-up to the Wall Street Crash; where contrary to being considered illegal, it was actually seen as being one of the perks of being an executive.  After the overindulgence of the 1920’s and the subsequent decade of a depression, public opinion quickly changed to criminalise insider trading.

Fast-forward to the present day City of London, and the FCA are coming down hard on market abusers all over the City through its biggest ever insider dealing probe, known as “Operation Tabernula”. 

It seems the crackdown can’t come soon enough, as public trust in banking fell to an all time low.  It was found that 71% of people surveyed by Which? last year, do not think that the banks have learned their lessons from the financial crisis. 

This fundamental lack of trust in the financial system shows that the Government has to start addressing some of the issues surrounding public perception of the banking sector; and prosecuting individuals who use sensitive information to better themselves seems as good a place to start as any.

Apart from the surge by UKIP in the recent local elections, politics has lacked its usual spark of late. The opinion polls aren’t moving much. The legislative programme introduced in the Queen’s Speech was pretty empty. Labour still hasn’t set out an alternative policy platform.

It may look like the usual mid-cycle lull in politics, but the reality is far from that. Things will certainly heat up over the next twelve months, and the road to the 2015 General Election will be completely different to previous ones.

The fact that we have a Coalition Government, the first since 1945, complicates all the usual mid-term political predictions. The first question is how the Government will operate in the run-up to the election, during which the governing parties must surely separate themselves somehow in order to campaign as separate entities.  The second concerns the greater number of election outcomes that are now likely. And third, if there is another coalition after 2015, it is likely to work very differently from the present one. So, here’s a stab at what will transpire towards 2015 and beyond, starting with a quick canter round the likely focus of the main parties.

The Conservatives are making continued efforts to boost their policy message and have steadied their decline in the opinion polls. They still remain consistently behind Labour, however, and while incumbent parties almost always trail their opposition in mid-term, the Tory campaign team wants to do much more to present the party as more in touch with “ordinary people’s concerns”. The polls show this is still a stubborn problem for the Conservatives, despite the party taking populist positions on key issues like welfare and immigration. They will, however, want to make more of two current advantages: poll leads on economic competence and David Cameron’s personal ratings.

For Labour, Ed Miliband’s team know that a compelling alternative policy platform could extend their lead towards the election, but building trust on issues like immigration and public spending – as well as the personal appeal of their leader – are crucial to achieving this. In 2015, they will need to make big gains in the south to be able to form a government. Expect team Miliband to make strong efforts to improve Labour’s economic credibility, as the party sees a big opportunity to show voters that the Coalition’s spending cuts have been both bad for the economy and unfair to ordinary families.

The Liberal Democrats are faring the least well of the main parties and now trail UKIP in the polls. Nick Clegg’s team will have two main priorities. First, to constantly press the message that the Lib Dems are anchored firmly in the centre ground of politics, which they see both the Conservatives and Labour deserting. The second, related, priority is to show that Nick Clegg is standing up to the Conservatives and scoring distinct policy wins on areas of real public concern, such as reducing the tax burden for ordinary families. While the polls are bad for the Lib Dems, being in coalition has made them a more credible political force than the current figures may suggest.

The other factor is UKIP. They have clearly taken up the mantle as a protest vote for people disaffected with the three established parties, but the impact of their current popularity on their prospects for 2015 remains unknown. They will certainly make big gains in the 2014 European elections.

How the Coalition is likely to operate for the rest of this Parliament is the big question, as its formal split for the 2015 election is not officially mapped out, despite there being a fixed-term Parliament. It is important to understand, however, for anyone who has to plan around the political agenda.

The most notable feature of the rest of this Parliament is the lack of planned legislative activity. But this, combined with an early Spending Review – which is due on June 26th if it goes ahead as billed – opens the way for the Coalition to split before the General Election in a strategically phased way.

While the governing parties will present a united front on the economic challenge they set out to tackle in 2010, they will use the next two years to steadily distance themselves from one another politically. Both camps are frustrated that working in coalition has dulled their ability to develop clear, distinct identities, and are beefing up their campaign machines to address this.

The formal campaign period for a general election is usually four to six weeks before polling day, during which the machinery of government is effectively suspended. This might be the expected point for the Coalition to dissolve, but in reality the parties need to be in full-on campaign mode many months before that. Given the political outlook above, it does not look electorally feasible for either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats to continue working together as they do now far beyond the summer of 2014, especially as Labour will by that time be starting to set out the top-line priorities of its own programme for government.

If the governing parties allow any sense that they are splitting acrimoniously well before the election, they will look like a dysfunctional administration – a gift to Labour. This is where the early Spending Review and light Parliamentary agenda come in very handy, possibly allowing for what is known as a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement to be phased in to allow the Coalition to wind down in advance of the campaign.

Versions of such an arrangement are commonly reached at the tail end of coalitions in other countries. The kind of coalition that we have now often comes to an end well before polling day, in order to enable the parties to build extended campaigns as separate entities. But in the case of a two-party coalition, the larger partner will often form a minority administration, supported by the smaller one, for the rest of the term. The two parties cooperate to stop no-confidence defeats (confidence) and on agreed spending (supply), but not much else.

Whatever form it takes, there will have to be some kind of arrangement like this. It would keep the financial markets happy and allow the continued implementation of key reforms, but the parties could campaign against each other on issues like spending priorities beyond 2015 and on familiar differences such as energy, Europe and defence. Because the next spending review period is only set to last a year into the next term, the ‘supply’ part of the agreement would not seriously compromise either the Conservatives’ or the Liberal Democrats’ manifestos.  Nor would it limit the Liberal Democrats’ ability to form a new coalition with Labour after 2015.

With the Conservatives and Labour polls so close, it is very hard to predict the outcome of the 2015 election. The current ratings could well produce another coalition. If that happens, one thing we can be sure of is that it will operate more like coalitions on the continent, where minority parties are much more aggressive at differentiating themselves from the outset. This would enable the Liberal Democrats to avoid repeating some of the bruising experiences from their first year in government with the Conservatives, from which they never really recovered. But it will make for a policy and legislative agenda that is even more difficult to understand and plan for than the present one.

This piece featured in our Three down two to go report, published 17 May 2013.

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How different to the British model. Our politics may put on some adversarial theatrics every Wednesday at noon, and for the odd by-election, but in the main its participants are too polite, and a little too embarrassed about appearing petty or difficult, to go down the American route of obstructing the Government’s agenda just for the sake of it.

Or are they? This week’s ludicrous contortions over an EU referendum vote suggest that British politics may be headed down the same difficult path as its Washington counterpart. But whereas American gridlock has traditionally been due to party politics (generally when one party holds the White House and the other runs Congress), we now have the astonishing spectacle of our governing party getting in its own way, and preventing itself from carrying out its own agenda. David Cameron is being held to ransom by a sizeable minority of his own side, who are unwilling to allow the Prime Minister to concentrate on his own political priorities and simply unprepared to accept any of the concessions he is making to their demands. By some Tolkienesque accounts there are eight different sub-factions of the Tory Eurosceptic clan, each with their own objectives and red lines. Remember, too, that polling suggests that an EU referendum is far from a priority for the vast majority of voters.

That the Tories are ungovernable is nothing new, and fault can equally be found with the Number 10 political operation. But this could be part of a wider trend. The current political stasis caused by the seemingly never-ending ructions over an EU referendum may signal a subtle shift in our politics.

So with a new age of coalition politics potentially here to stay for a while, don’t be surprised to see a few “do nothing Parliaments” in the coming decades. Somewhere in middle England, Nigel Farage is raising yet another pint of ale in quiet celebration of politics breaking down once more.